Saturday, January 2, 2021

Happy 2021

 


What a year that was. I didn't feel much like writing after the virus hit and who knows 2021 might bring more of the same. It will get worse. January and February along with the weather will be brutal.

Vaccine coming but molasses slow. Better days ahead?

What Can We Do?

Well I'm going to make sure my PFs are as tax efficient as can be. They are and have been for years. Max out your TFSA and RRSP as soon as you can because you can expect many changes to the tax structure after the spring budget.

Taxes are going up as the government will be looking everywhere to offset the massive spending plan they have planned for 2021.

I will be adding some silver coins and maybe some bitcoin to offset our portfolios of dividend growth stocks.

Why?

Simply as a hedge against this massive devaluing by central banks of our currency. Nothing more than 1% of our total net worth. I think this is prudent in todays climate.

Interest rates are in the ditch and as long as they are I believe a small diversified position is warranted. Even my dividend guru Tom Connolly has some old Canadian silver coins in his possession. I do too along with some physical bullion.

I don't know much about bitcoin but I'm becoming a believer. I need more study and just how to buy and where to store and keep it. Nothing crazy just a little at a time.

What's Trending?

I need to do more of this as there is more than one way to make money in this world. Would you buy coca-cola stock today? I am not Warren Buffett so the answer is no. He has lots bought when it was a thing. It's NOT anymore. I wouldn't even drink it or any soda out there. It's just shit.

But there are other ways to make money, increase income and build wealth. We know this truth yet are paralyzed to use different tools out there and leave our comfort zone.

So, one of my commitments to my investing self is to pay attention to trends and where the psychology of the market is taking money higher. I like to buy things when they are down and on sale in all walks of life.

When dividend paying stocks like the PIPELINES are down like now that is a place to look. I already own ENB, TRP and PPL.

I like but don't own IPL and KEY.

Telecom stocks are also data pipelines. They are a necessity and an essential service that is now getting government backing to have it installed everywhere humans live and congregate. These stocks are a must in any dividend portfolio. I own BCE, Telus and will be adding Shaw very soon. 

Finally

With income generated by growing monthly and quarterly dividend paying stocks I am going to look at some different ways of deploying and protecting our money. I will also try and pay attention to what the youth of our day spends money on and what trends seem to be appearing on the investing landscape.

It is only arrogance that let's us ignore and dismiss other ways people use to make money investing.

What Buffett did and invested in 50 years just is old and tired today. He missed the tech boom because he didn't understand it. He bought Apple 15 years later but he eventually got on board. That's OK all I'm saying is for me is to pay attention. What's trending is my 2021 mantra. 

Seek out those trends and explore if they are investable like marijuana stocks in 2003 when the government of Canada legalized it. Lots of easy money was made but not by me. I'm at a different head space now. Pay attention!

To sum up, most bloggers recommend more balanced portfolio nonsense or those new fangled one asset portfolios. Owning one asset is not a portfolio. You can keep costs at zero by buying individual stocks. I hate this balanced strategy.

I don't own bonds and would never buy any. They're just garbage in my opinion. Buy things that are down, trending up and pay you to own them. Keep searching and never stop.

Hedge with small positions in gold, silver and some bitcoin to protect purchasing power and your wealth. 1% of my net worth is my goal.

I hope 2021 is a roaring investing success for you!

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

CPP Early or Late?

 




The ongoing should I take my public pension money now or wait debate rages, on all sorts of financial blogs. Take it early or defer? The opinions vary across the spectrum. This is just my opinion piece on the subject that I promise is light on math.

The pandemic is changing everything in a matter of months. There was a time when all people did was buy government bonds and GICs to comfortably fund their retirement. Low interest rates paying close to zero have pretty much nixed that strategy. 4-5% safe yields no longer exist.

They used to recommend that you take your age and that's how much you should have invested in bonds. 60% for a 60 year old and 70% for a 70 year old. You used to get a livable return on your money doing that.

Well, those days are long over.

Bonds are low yield plays of 0.5%-1% and GICs are your go to going broke safely choice. We are now being recommended lower bond exposure with more growth dividend paying equities. Yup, hold the same stuff in retirement as when we were working. Some even recommend preferred shares for their favourable tax treatment and higher yields. Usually made by insurance salesman and paid financial planners. Not for a DIY investor like me.

After all you don't want to run out of money in retirement. That's what would happen with a 60-70% bond/GIC exposure portfolio. It's a risk you really need to consider. 

So, I'm sure you've asked yourself and maybe some friends too; should I take my CPP early or wait for later?

Most surveys and the financial experts combined with the government want you to defer your public pension as long as possible. That way you get more money when you mature and prune up. It's a safe decision and it pretty much guarantees it keeps up with the ravages of inflation. 

Guess what? most to almost nobody does it in spite of the free advice spewed for free online or by youtubers.

Over 40% of us elect to collect at 60. Another 30% wait until 65 and only 1% defer all the way to 70.

Lots of amateur mathematicians with a blog out there bragging about how taking your CPP at 70 is what they will do and the best thing to do. 

They actually try and make you feel small and bad for even thinking about taking it early so you can buy some of the comforts of life with your pension money.

They prey on your financial illiteracy and lack of social smarts.

Pros and amateur blog dogs sell the story that you will have more cash for life because delaying your pension means payments will get bigger and more inflation indexing will come your way. The wise ones preach that we are all living longer and we need more income as we age in these extra years. Our so called safe investment assets are paying next to nothing so the money is best to come from a deferred pension.

Most planners (people still use these?) say that there are 3 big reasons to cash in early;

  1. You need the money to pay bills and supplement income or you'll end up broke
  2. You will die young based on illness or hereditary family history
  3. Retired early and no longer pay into the plan
The same experts point out that making another 7% in annual increased payments (deferred) is more than you can make if you invested the money yourself. So, it makes financial sense to wait until later. Let the guvmint keep investing and holding your money for you. 

They also want to scare you into using your RRSP money because in the end it saves them money. They want to suck off their share of taxes as you burn through your hard saved up retirement money. Remember this money becomes fully taxable as soon as you tap into it.

To me, the longer you wait the closer to death you are. When that happens they're off the hook. They owe you and your estate nothing. Spouse will receive a survivor's benefit but c'est tout!

So what to do? Collect zero at 60, OAS at 65 and CPP at 70? Is that the plan for your contributions? Experts surmise this would net about $100K over decades of retirement. 

As talked about earlier this is not what the masses do. Are they right?

You're damn straight they are! Early CPP wins!

Grab the cash as soon as you're eligible. No looking back, stop the second guessing. Turnoff the online calculators, no need for more dumb spreadsheets. 

C'mon man you're 60, enough of the listening to cellar dwelling internet experts wiping the chip dust from their chest hair.

You have no idea how long you will live and neither does anyone. Have a look at the virus numbers. Shit happens, take the f'n money NOW!

Live for the now, NOT your future self. 

How do you know what you and your body at 70 feels like? What about all the delayed surgeries and treatments people in their sixties are living through right now. Try to get into the hospital right now. It's a hostile trip. 

Some will make it to that island holiday, others just won't. Feel lucky?

You might be severely disappointed at your 70 year old self. My back still hurts when I hear that word - Tillsonburg!

I've invested in dividend paying growth stocks so my portfolio will grow, throb and expand in retirement. If I'm doing it right and think that I am, I can live off the juice without tapping into the whole coconut. I'll use my early CPP to add to my prepper stuff and booze collection.

Waiting until 70 also risks a higher tax bracket and triggering capital gains selling stuff when you don't really want to. Think of all the money you don't have to pull out of investments if you tapped out early. Take your pension money NOW!

No need to try and be a 1% 'er when it comes to CPP.

My Final Take

I took my CPP 4 years ago. I completely stopped working so money is taxed at the lowest rate possible. My wife continues to work a couple days a week and is not yet 60. We will decide what she wants to do then, but deferring to age 70 will not be an option in our decision.

It's your money, all of it. You funded it along with all the employers you ever worked for. It's personal and different for everybody. 2020 has been a shit show and changed all that. 

A good plan and you should have one changes over time. 

Hopefully we've learned that every day is so unpredictable and to just breathe is a gift. Leave nothing extra for the government.

Tomorrow is promised to no one.

When do you plan on taking CPP? I would be interested in your choice and reasons for doing so.

If you need help on how to generate additional income in retirement, then this book below can help you.




Saturday, December 19, 2020

Investor Mistakes and Solutions


 

We all make them don't we. If you don't well you're just not learning anything. Ever tried to downhill ski? Falling is part of the learning curve and without it you will never learn or become anything close to an accomplished skier. It's part of it so get used to falling down, brushing off and starting over with a new lesson.

You are going to make mistakes when you decided to put money to work. The following are just a few I've made and and how I fixed them. 

Buying What I Don't Know 

I went on a buying spree of epic proportions in the junior silver and gold mining space. I didn't have a clue what or who the companies were. I was just born in Northern Ontario and it seemed like the thing to do because my Dad was also once a miner.

Quickly and rapidly I managed to turn $50,000 into $8,000. I then compounded that mistake with selling all the stocks at a loss instead of waiting for a recovery. I didn't understand the sector or the names I was invested in. I listened to pundits and newsletter writers instead of studying the company myself.

Solution - Buy and invest in what you know a little about. If you know nothing about anything then leave it in savings until you do. Go to the library and study everything you can find on investing. 

Selling Too Soon 

This is an off shoot of buying what you don't know. You are more prone to sell too early when you don't know what you own. I regret just about every selling decision I've ever made in my investing life.

They always go up in price after you sell, don't they? Best to forget it and move on. Try to remember what made you buy the stock in the first place and then ask yourself if there has been any drastic change that would cause you to dump it. Take your time before you make a selling decision.

Solution - have an exit strategy. Do know how much of a loss you are willing to take. For stocks over $5, I allow no more than a haircut of 20%.
Put the money to work in something that is on the way up and something you know something about, like your bank where you keep your money.

Mutual Funds and Index Investing

Getting sucked into the world of modern portfolio theory. These are the experts that spew nonsense like asset allocation, balance, re-balancing and the 60-40 portfolio.
You want to own bonds in this investing climate?
These are people who make money off the people mentioned above. Those that don't know what they own. They dazzle you with company speak and tell you that nobody is smarter than the market just so they can sell you their specific products. I used to own portfolios consisting of nothing but mutual funds or index ETFs. 

I own nothing but individual dividend growth stocks where I can see the dividend income being deposited into my account. The problem with the funds and ETF products is the fees being subtracted from your account on a monthly basis.

Solution - Do your own homework and do your own stock picking and investing. YES you can do this on your own and you must take care of your own investing to have a secure retirement and NOT running out of money. If you continually listen to those who repeat modern portfolio theory you will pay out half of all your gains in fees to advisors. Why would you pay even $100 a month to someone to manage your money. Learn to do this yourself like changing the oil on your car.


My Final Take 

These are just a few of the many investing mistakes I've made and have now learned from. I was once a non swimmer but later became a working lifeguard. I couldn't walk with skis on but soon tackled the moguls and black diamond runs. It just takes time and knowledge.

We all lose money in the learning process. For now most of my money is investing in banks, utilities, telcos and pipelines. Companies that have been around for decades, are boring but consistently pay a dividend that rises in value every year.

I am focused on growing my annual dividend income, NOT paying any fees and adding to companies I already know and use.

Here is a recommendation on a book to help you with your investor education if you need it.
 

Friday, December 18, 2020

Nibbling on Yield Stocks


One doesn't get a chance to buy stocks at bargain prices very often so is this such a time?

Dunno.

I just like to buy when I have the money. Another area which differentiates me from a lot of others is that I'm buying dividend growth stocks with at least a 10 year record of increasing that dividend yield. I hunt for that yield to help supplement my pension income.

Nothing else really matters.

CIBC is one of the worst performers of Canada's big banks for the last 2 years. It closed yesterday at $103.75. That's a lot of money per share so most investors shy away.

It has a dividend yield of 5.6%

It's 10 year average yield is 4.1%

If we compare that to a utility darling like Emera where investors seem to be flocking to in droves these days we'll find a startling difference.

EMA yields 4.1% today.

It's 10 year average yield is 4.4%

Yes it's yielding less than it did in 2010.

Yield Buys

Hard assets like pipelines in my opinion will do well going forward. I recently purchased PPL Pembina Pipeline and it's 7.9% yield.

I'm already up 18% since purchase and added $504 to my yearly dividend income.

Should you buy it? Dunno

This is a new position to my other pipeline stocks TRP and ENB. I like them for the yield and to carry oil and nat gas as the economy can't run without them at the moment and in my lifetime.

BCE

Yup added more Ma Bell. 6% yield

Why wouldn't you buy or own this stock? Are people not shopping more online? Using more data?

Of course we are and these steady yield payers like BCE are not going anywhere.

I buy these for the income. To build up my yearly stream of dividend income in retirement. If I lost half the value it doesn't matter as I'm buying income. This will only increase if the capital price erodes.

In the New Year I will be looking to add to my BNS, ENB, BMO  and CU positions. I believe their yield is still on sale.

If you want to learn more about buying stocks to generate income then you need to buy;



Monday, July 13, 2020

The Fed says Stocks are Going Higher!




How can that be? The market has been on a tear lately so surely it's due for a pullback.

Many investors are sitting on the sidelines with cash just ready to storm in and start buying once this inevitable market crash #2 starts.

Is that what's going to happen and is it the right call?

Shouldn't we be shorting Tesla instead? I mean who is buying TSLA at these levels?

I try not to listen to all the prognosticators telling us they sold all their stocks because the charts say so. Mostly these amateurs can be found on Youtube and on various FB groups. 

I try to listen to what most economic experts are saying and telling us what they are doing and make a judgement from there. The market is definitely NOT based on fundamentals lately.

WHY HIGHER FROM HERE

We are now entering earnings season. They are saying this is going to be the worst report since the meltdown in March. These abysmal earnings are already baked in. They have to be because the Nasdaq is making record high after record high. This is how Wall Street works. So expect bad news and the street to then say; 

'yah but NOT as bad as we thought they would be'

BOOM! if that happens. Stocks going higher. 

Of course they could dump if anything un-forseen should happen but not based on what is currently unfolding before our eyes. 

The experts and pundits are all warning us to be careful, go slow, conserve some cash. Meanwhile, they are all buying the market. Big Wall St. banks are all buying. None announce they are selling and sitting this rally out. They say one thing and do another. This is how they manipulate and play the market. It's their game.

The Fed is buying the market and giving cash to the big banks. That is another reason the market is going higher. The Fed has their own trading desk.

Crude Oil

It's also been going higher which boosts the financial sector. This market will continue to get bid up and push the stock market higher.

How? Well most investors on FB and Twitter are bears right now. Full of doom and gloom. The crowd is usually wrong, aren't they? When you have a lot of bears and just a few bulls then PROBABLY the market goes higher.

Headline News

Also driving the market higher. Do you think the President during an election year wants a lower market? Of course not. That's why there is lots of talk about a vaccine. Futures lower pre-market followed by vaccine announcement, stocks reverse course and head higher. That happened Friday. Listen to the headlines and use it to your advantage. 

The Fed is in the process of multiplying it's balance sheet multiple times higher. It's not even close to being done. Go to their website and have a look. 

They have no intention of stopping asset purchases or issuing more debt instruments. This is stock market POSITIVE!

Hold Hard Assets

At least while the Fed continues to inflate this market. I hold gold stocks, physical silver and if I was smart enough and knew more I'd buy some crypto currency like BTC. I don't hold any at the moment but I'm getting close to making a small investment.

I posted what I own yesterday in My Gold, Silver and Oil Insurance Policy

Why would anyone buy the most expensive asset like bonds in this environment? Pfft and not for me. I would rather hold gold and silver while they are going up and heading higher from here.

Silver I believe is still the most undervalued asset on the planet right now. Just my opinion and you can have your own, that's OK.

Final Take 

The Fed is out there lending money and buying assets. It's not going to stop anytime soon. It is doing it's job and inflating this market to historic levels. No President is going to stop it. The Fed is in control of the GLOBAL market.

Whoever controls the cash, controls the world!

What do you believe? Are stocks going higher or are we going to crash?

Saturday, July 11, 2020

My Gold, Silver and Oil insurance Policy


Physical gold is a little expensive for me to buy so I stick to just trying to accumulate silver. Relative to gold it's cheap, so I buy some when I have the money.

I spent $3800 yesterday on;

100 Silver Dollars
100 Half Dollars
164 Quarters
504 Dimes

All Canadian Junk Silver

As they say they're not making it anymore so buy some. You know like real estate in desirable areas.

It's just a belief system I have that with all the money printing silver and gold are going higher. These are just a 24-36 month hold for me. Lots of angst and fear out there to warrant buying an insurance policy for your portfolio. This is mine.

Of course junk silver is not your only choice. Pure bullion is also good. I own 225 Cdn Silver Maples which are now selling for $32 depending on the day and what dealer you use. I've purchased some as low as $24.

So that portion in today's market is worth 225 X 32 = $7200

I own various lots of American Junk silver in quarters and dimes. I stay away from their bigger stuff or dollars. Their silver eagles are the most over priced coins on the market @ over $35.
.
I'm at least close to $20K invested in physical silver.

Gold Stocks

I own the following positions;

Argonaut Gold
Alacer Gold
Abitibi Royalties
B2 Gold
Dundee Precious
Eldorado
Equinox
First Majestic
Fortuna Silver
Great Panther
McEwen Mining
Novagold Resources
Nighthawk Gold
Pretium Resources
Roxgold
Americas Gold and Silver
Wesdome Mining

I prefer to hold and own my gold inside mid-tier mining companies. Most of these positions were accumulated during the March/April time frame.

NHK.TO is my only holding in the red. It is very volatile.

With physical silver and gold stocks I have about $180K invested in this sector. Yes big commitment but as I like to say buy when it's cheap and you have the money. Sell when it's expensive or you need the money.

Speaking of cheap. Did you buy any oil stocks when the price of crude went negative? Why not? That is when they were the cheapest in years. Even year to date they have lots of room to run.

My Oil Stocks

Enerplus
Ensign Energy Services
Freehold Royalties
Horizon North Logistics
Nuvista
Torc Oil and Gas
Vermilion
Whitecap Resources

VET is still in the red. I invested $40K in this sector. Should have loaded up more as demand picks up and supply stocks start to draw down. Oil tankers are starting to be emptied as we slowly get back to balance.

You can also look at ARX, CPG, BIR, GTE, TVE and the list goes on.

Update

I have not sold one single stock in my DG retirement portfolio. Only adding to banks, utilities and pipelines.

The stocks listed above are not buy recommendations, just what I hold short term.

Try to stay positive and look for opportunities during covid where assets are cheap.

I didn't stock up on TP, flour or yeast. I bought silver and cheap oil stocks with a sprinkling of gold stocks. Things I can sell quickly if need be.

How about you? Do you own any gold and silver in any form. If so what and if not, why not? Curious on your thoughts.

What do you think of my new insurance policy?

Friday, March 20, 2020

Silver as Portfolio Insurance


Just a real short post today on what I've been doing during this whipsaw week on the market.

I did buy a couple stocks for trade. First Majestic and Sandstorm Gold. I have always wanted to own them. These again are short term trades and stocks to not fall in love with. Watch them carefully.

I have not sold a single stock from my retirement accounts. Yes I'm down significantly but what are the choices. Should I cash in now and buy back later?

Contrary to popular belief I'm not that smart to be able to time the buy and sell with any accuracy.

This too will pass and all these losses will soon turn around. In the meantime the cash flow is still rising. I only wish I wouldn't have deployed my RRSP contribution so early. Oh well that's done.

I have been accumulating some poor person's gold in the form of physical silver.

I have decided I want at least $5K in physical as portfolio insurance against further downturns of 20-30% like we have been experiencing. I did this in early 2000 and paid my townhouse off 5 years later when silver rose to $40 an ounce.

With the world gone mad I just wanted to do something different for a change.

Would you sell your house and buy stocks? Tempting isn't it.

This is going to become known as the buying opportunity of a lifetime, I'm sure. Everything asset wise is cheap.


Silver Buys

Besides buying a couple stocks this week I purchased the following;

75 Silver Maples
6 X 10 oz. Bars
5 X Silver Rounds
$100 Assorted Junk Silver (Dollars, Halves, Quarters and Dimes)

This is not for everyone and I get that. Instead of checking on my portfolio or sweating in front of the TV watching BNN I just decided to jump back into silver.

Good move? Time will tell but by historical ratios silver is cheap. It got up as high as 123-1.

You could buy 123 ounces of silver for the price of 1 ounce of gold.

You want to sell or convert your silver to gold when that ratio comes down.

Just what I've done and by no means what I think anyone else should do.

This is not coin collecting.

What do you think. Thumbs up or down on this strategy of spending a portion of your portfolio on physical silver? In my case $5K.

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Happy 2021

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