Saturday, January 18, 2020

I'm Still Buying Because Stocks Are Going Higher



Yes, I think they are. Stocks that is, going higher. What else is going on with these new highs being reached every day?

No doubt we're still in a massive bubble for all assets. The fed continues to pump money into the repo (repurchase agreement) market. The fed is going to prop up these investment banks to avoid a repeat of 2008-9.

Why are they running out of money?

The economy is supposed to be so great. Unemployment at 50 year lows. Stock market making new highs every day. Yet, banks need money and need it every day. Maybe it's just all a great big fat manipulated lie.

Inflation is running at 2% yet retailers are running out and buying bonds at 1.75% for a ten year U.S. bond. This is madness.

How about that trade deal with China? You know the biggest one in the history of the world. Where was the big guy President Xi? He didn't show up for the signing of the greatest deal in history. Ya sure it was. Have another drink. HA!

The money is being used to purchase stocks and risky assets so the J.P. Morgans of the world can lend it out to hedge funds so they can pay bonuses and make money on the spread.

Without the fed priming this pump they all go bankrupt like Bear Stearns. They are literally signalling to us on a daily basis that stocks are going higher. Why? They keep borrowing money to feed the bubble. The Fed and the banks are running the show and feeding their habit. They really do run the world, so follow the money.

In this election year the money is going into buying stocks. Buy the best companies and the biggest players in their field. Expect more of this to continue in my view.

Recent Buys

I recently bought positions in AAPL, FB, MSFT and ZBK.

Why? I like to buy what I use.

Also watch the kids.

What are they doing? Pay attention

Playing on an iphone, checking Facebook and Instagram. They go home and watch Youtube videos and love to order all kinds of shit on Amazon and now watch Amazon Prime. This is what they do and why these stocks are going much higher. Oh, did I mention Google owns Youtube. Ya you gotta own GOOG too!

I own an iphone, just recently bought my wife an ipad and Apple TV and subscriptions are booming along with Macs, Beats and Apple Care. It's a great company and I own lots of their products.

On the investment side and whether it's a good buy is a personal opinion. Trump has said "I love Apple" even though he fights for the keys to their back door. The shares have only rocketed higher.

Spits out $43B in free cash flow per year
ROE of 56%
p/e = 21


Berkshire owns $77B worth of Apple shares.
Buffett is the GOAT
Without the 7-1 split of 2014 AAPL would be $2100 per share.

Nothing says we can't hit more all time highs. The only ones who say we can't have never lived through a bull market. Have you? The fact is nobody knows when this will end.

This is a trading position for me. Looking at $350-400 to exit.

FB Facebook

Their market share is anyone connected to the internet. 140M small businesses use FB as a marketplace. What is Shopify again?

Facebook also owns Instagram where people you see staring at their phone screen are accessing 100 times a day every day.

Buy anytime it drops. Why? There is no social media platform that will replace FB anytime soon. If there is please let me know.

p/e =24
ROE = 21%
FCF = $14.3B

Revenue = $66.5B

It's an amazing juggernaut and is only going higher in 2020 IMO.

I also wrote about FB here.



MSFT Microsoft

p/e = 27
ROE = 43%
FCF = $34B

Revenue = $130B
They just make money. I just updated my computer to Windows 10. It's installed on every other computer NOT named Mac.

Skype, Outlook, Office, Messenger and Video Chat calls. It really is the internet of things. We all use it so deal with it and invest.

U.S. Banks

The king of debt, POTUS loves banks. He borrows his way to riches from banks. I have never owned them and instead of trying to cherry pick individual names here I just bought the ETF - ZBK from BMO. It's an equal weight holding with some JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America.

MER = .37%
Yield = 2.17%

YTD it's up 29%

The banks are going higher because their being pumped up. Whether this is the right way to play it remains to be seen. I'm buying it for continued growth and not the income. Looking for a trend reversal and then I'm out. You could just buy Goldman Sachs but I believe this is a little less risky. I'm only looking to hit a single here.


2020 Other Picks/Buys

COST Costco

You have to eat, we all do. I'm a member and also a happy shareholder. 

I also wrote about Costco here.

Visa
Mastercard
Google

Amazon
Proctor and Gamble
Johnson & Johnson
Berkshire Hathaway
WalMart


Pick away when you have the money, sell when you need the money and in between do nothing.


Risk Plays

Own some gold, silver and now it seems that crypto is getting bid higher. $11,610 CDN

Up 24% in the last month and up 148% in the last year. Hard to ignore those returns and piss on bitcoin. I don't own any as I have my hands full at the moment.

ROXG Roxgold

New Buy


I bought 5000 shares. Currently trades at 0.91 but has been as high as $1.42.
Would love to make 10-20% here nothing greedy. It's risky as a penny dreadful gold stock operating in Burkina Faso. If these stocks start to catch up to the rise in the spot price of gold they should do well. If it goes down 10% I'll cut my losses.

At 230 square kilometers they own a big property with loads of potential.

In this hyper inflated stock market I think owning some gold is a good idea. Buy some physical if you want. Protect yourself. This might get ugly.


My Final Take

I believe stocks are going higher. I bought some US stocks because besides COSTCO I owned none.

Everyone is reducing, waiting for the crash, or the great reset. They're sitting in cash waiting to get hit by a car. I like to do the opposite because the herd is usually wrong.

I'm just playing the game until the worm turns and this market goes the other way.

So far the fed is not allowing that to happen as they keep injecting more drugs into this addicted body called the stock market.

"The stock market is a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free, and good men die like dogs. There's also a negative side." Adapted - Hunter S. Thompson


Don't hate the player, hate the game! - Gregory Mannarino

Just what I'm doing and not recommending you do the same. I don't own any bonds, pref shares, mutual funds or ETFs in my retirement account.

Everything listed above are trading positions and will be sold when I believe the time is right. Right now buy the banks and these large cap tech stocks. Amazon and Google will be bought shortly in the same account.

The market wants to go higher. The market is going higher. The highs of 2019 can be replicated by new highs in 2020. Nobody Knows Anything or Everything!

Take care!

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