Sunday, August 19, 2018

The Future of Cash Money



My wife and I just left a local farmer's market here in Southern Ontario as most are on display most Saturdays. We bought a couple loaves of locally milled bread (Yummy) and lunch consisting of chickpea curry and basmatti rice.

She asked me how much cash I had left? When I was finished rummaging through my murse. I said "7 bucks". "Well that's not much and I said what more do we need and why?"

This got me thinking as we just passed the blackout anny of 2003. Nothing worked when the grid melted down. People were fighting for cases of bottled water and starting to hoard like the early days of the apocalypse. Humans can get unruly in a power failure. With everybody forced off grid, cash was still king in the dark. It was all that was acceptable. I was screwed because I don't carry much to any paper money anymore. My fault? or is it?

I pay for everything with debit or credit. You see I've been programmed to collect those loyalty points. Canadian Tire, yup got the app to collect internet money. With my credit card I collect PC points for groceries. Nothing too crazy but you have to be loyal to something other than going to the bank in person don't you? I mean what's in there anymore? Just some people struggling to sell products they know not much about.

They don't handle large sums of cash. You gotta call ahead for that. Need 5K in US cash for travel? You better phone first. I mean they don't even carry cash so why should you and I?

Everything you need is transferred these days. Your paycheque is on direct deposit. After it goes in bills are automatically sucked out because you set it up that way. No need to line up to pay for power, phone or cable. 

At the bank try and take out all the money you own in cash that the terminal tells you, you have. Can't have it. Make an appointment. This is another reason a lot of people are pickled in debt. Banks make it so easy to do it online. When I logged into my account the other day, waiting for me to accept was a Visa card with a $20K limit. All I had to do was click accept. I have more credit than I need. Sheesh it's far too easy to apply for credit and far too hard to get at your cash physically.

Banks in their present form are the new dinosaurs of the downtown strip mall landscape.They deal in credit and NOT in cash. This is the future for a few more years anyway. Bank tellers are becoming extinct. Replaced by an app. It's cheaper housing a few ATMs and keeping a couple managers around to deal with complicated mortgages and loans. That's it. It's coming. Farmer's and street musicians deal in cash, but for banks it's becoming too burdensome and expensive to deal with.

I mean banks are still getting robbed and websites getting hacked is the new norm. I doubt I'll be opening a new account on my phone but many do. This is the future. Banks will close and even your grandma will be forced online. Digital currency will reign supreme and e-transfers are the new normal to pass money in any transaction. I'm as guilty as anyone for embracing this new technology. I love the simplicity and convenience and I don't have to socialize and do that people thing.

In my previous work life, I spent 10 years working in the Armoured Car Business. Layoffs, reductions in customer service and route cancellations were the norm every year. The business is shrinking with customers from beer and liquor stores, casinos and banks all cutting back on when they need a pick-up. Why? people are not using cash, they've gone electronic. Cash is expensive when you've got little to handle.

Here in Ontario we're on the cusp of legalizing weed so all this is just in time for an industry getting smaller while Cannabis explodes in value. Most of the sales will all be on credit. I doubt you'll see armoured trucks parked outside either dropping off or picking up more than bi-weekly.

Unionized workers cost money, new trucks, maintenance, infrastructure all are unnecessary expenses when it comes to using paper and coins in their physical form. I'm sure in a few more years central banks will stop printing and issuing physical currency. The trend and pressure will be to come up with some form of National digital currency. It's coming, you can feel it in the air.

OK but what happens when the grid goes for a dump like 15 years ago? No shopping, No gas for the ride, No ATMs function, No bill payments and No food to buy. What of our world then and who and what do our dependent asses depend on? Cash is disappearing, the answers to these questions will come soon enough.

What do you think about the future of cash? How much do you carry?



Looking for Saving Ideas so You Can Invest That Cash?


If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. 

If you are further looking for portfolio ideas then you might find my review of The 6-Pack Portfolio a way for you to get started on your investing journey. All of our retirement money is invested in this manner. We just hold more than 6 positions.

All 3 of these books written for Canadians by Canadians.



Saturday, August 18, 2018

Investments Trades and Portfolio Update


Just another short post on where our portfolios are at, what investments/trades I've made and what stock lists I've compiled as prospective buys. I also do this as entertainment as I like to track the performance of Canadian Dividend and Growth stocks.

I last briefly updated my portfolio here.

I like to use Canadian Dividend Growth Stocks to build our retirement savings. I use Growth stocks with play money to trade in and out of to generate capital gains. I never mix the two strategies together. Here is how our current portfolios are doing;


My RRSP

BMO 25.8%
BNS 4.1%
BCE (4%)
CM 23%
CNR 5.8%
CP 2.3%
CSU 2%
ENB (7.4%)
FTS (1.8%)
RY 16.5%
TD 5%
TRP 6%
VFV 7.3%

Portfolio Value = $89,899.33

This portfolio currently yields 3.6%. This is a very low yield which tells me the PF is pretty safe with lots of room for growth. CNR, CP and CSU are very low yield stocks. This mix of stocks and 1 ETF allows me to sleep at night and it is predicted to generate $3,082 in dividend income during the next 12 months based on my portfolio size. I started investing in my RRSP late in life. We were busy living and paying off our house.

My Wife's RRSP

BCE (0.4%)
BIP.UN (1.5%)
BMO 2.5%
BNS 2.6%
CM 4.5%
CNR 5%
CP 7%
CU 1.6%
ENB 1%
FTS 3.3%
RY 2%
SJR.B flat
T 4%
TD 4%
TRP 1.5%
XAW 20%

Portfolio Value = $108,335.01

This portfolio currently yields 3.96% and will generate $3,718 in dividend income in the coming 12 month period. I recently converted a couch potato portfolio into this DG portfolio you see laid out here. This is why some of the percentage gains are low. It will be a nice compliment to my RRSP to supplement both of our indexed pensions.

My Wife's LRSP

MAW104 3.65%
RY 28%
FTS flat

Portfolio Value = $73,252.69

I am going to leave this PF of hers alone from now on. I want to use it as a comparison and see how it does growth wise to her DG portfolio. I will leave the 2 stocks alone and let them generate some small income and use any cash to buy more individual stocks. Currently there is $927 in cash and the PF is projected to generate only $358 in dividend income during the next 12 months. The stock positions are very small.


Trading Portfolio

130 shares CGX @ $30.92 = $4029.59 Book Value. Market Value =$4147.00
Profit = $117.41

75 shares OTEX @ $50.86 = $3824.39 Book Value. Market Value = $3801.75
Loss = $22.74

Cash Balance = $521.16

I'm just watching and waiting here to make some money. You now have a good idea how I am trying to build some wealth in all these separate accounts.

TFSAs we also have but dollar amounts are all in cash and very small at the moment so not worth mentioning. We are contributing monthly as cash becomes available. We are spending some good amounts of money travelling and having fun visiting the granddaughters. You have to have a life and money is just a small part of that. It is nice to be able to afford it.

What I'm Watching

I've dumped all the spec/gold watchlists. Too much volatility and I hate losing even 8% of my money on all these small trades. The following are all growth stocks I like and may buy in the future as trading stocks;

PLC, RBA, DSG, MTY, ATD-B, TOY, TC, DOL and SIS.

These are all solid businesses that generate good cash flow and make money. Whether you want to hold them or trade them is a personal decision. This list changes constantly so check back often for updates. I have owned MTY, TOY, DOL and ATD-B in the past.

I am really intrigued by funeral home operator PLC as they are growing and earnings per share continues to grow. I am concerned about their low ROE for a long term hold. We'll see going forward.


I NEVER USE MY RETIREMENT MONEY TO TRADE IN AND OUT OF 
STOCKS!




Investing and Saving Ideas You Can Use NOW!


If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. 

If you are further looking for portfolio ideas then you might find my review of The 6-Pack Portfolio a way for you to get started on your investing journey. All of our retirement money is invested in this manner. We just hold more than 6 positions.

All 3 of these books written for Canadians by Canadians.



Friday, August 17, 2018

The Big Bounce



If you were wrong yesterday then you were right today as the market gained big on the day. Volatility is the name of the game on a daily basis. Sell off Thursday, up on  Friday. SELL OFF Monday, UP on Tuesday, Big drop Wednesday and nice GAINS today with the TSX up 77 points, Oil up and the DOW up 396 points.

How do you keep your head and stay in the market during this type of volatility? What will the market do on Friday?

If I'm investing, I just hold all my positions in my retirement accounts and try not to sweat it. Tariffs and Trump are driving the bus. Oh, wait a minute, now it's Turkey in the news. It has surpassed Iran and Saudi Arabia as the cause of world worry.

I am sure Brexit will soon take the lead and then there's always China and how  they will react to a rising currency if the Donald gets his wish. The point is, there is always something to fret about when you live and die on the markets like most of us investors and speculators do. Stay invested and buy quality companies and just ignore the stock market.


"As long as you are invested appropriately for your goals, stay away from your investment portfolio - Warren Buffett 2016.

Doing nothing is often the right thing to do"


Patience Little One

It was just last week I was moaning about missing my buy point for CGX. I was down $249 on the trade after earnings were reported and the stock sank after I bought it.

After the close Thursday CGX was up $153 on my small 130 share purchase. That is quite the reversal in just 5 trading days. Now positive by 3.78%. With it's earnings now in and  some upward momentum I will ride this for maybe the next 14 weeks or if I can make 20-25%, if I don't need the money sooner. The stock also yields 5.9% which will allow me some breathing room. I don't buy trading stocks for dividends and don't really care. I am buying for quick capital gains, that's it. The dividend will allow me to be wrong for just a little longer if necessary.

My other trader stock is OTEX. It's flat for me right now but at least it hasn't tanked like most stocks. I really like the tech sector right now to make some gains. We'll see if I can make 20% on OTEX. That's the goal so stay tuned.

Was today just a big dead cat bounce and will markets sell off ahead of the weekend? I hope not but if you were looking to buy stocks why would you want the market to go up. 

"Price is what you pay and value is what you get." - Warren Buffett



I NEVER USE MY RETIREMENT MONEY TO TRADE IN AND OUT OF 
STOCKS!



You can look at our retirement holdings here.

Investing and Saving Ideas You Can Use NOW!


If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. 

If you are further looking for portfolio ideas then you might find my review of The 6-Pack Portfolio a way for you to get started on your investing journey. All of our retirement money is invested in this manner. We just hold more than 6 positions.

All 3 of these books written for Canadians by Canadians.


Thursday, August 16, 2018

Rule #1 - Cut Your Stock Losses Early



Just a short post to explain the loss rule I follow for selling my stocks. 

After experiencing the whipsawing we saw yesterday, this post I think is important. If I owned pot stocks or junior gold/silver stocks then I would have had to sell them yesterday. Why? Most dropped precipitously and with NO warning. This is another reason to just stand aside and get the hell out of the way. Losses of 10-15% per stock was the norm on Tuesday and Wednesday.

You have to have rules when you are playing the game of buying and selling stocks. It doesn't matter if you believe it's a game or not. IT IS! and like all games you need to follow some rules to get it right or at least have the rules work in your favour. To win you have to have a strategy of increasing the odds so they work for you long term and not against you. 


When To Sell

This is an emotional decision. Nobody likes to admit they got it wrong. The stock you picked to make money on is a loser. This is from William J. O'Neil and I follow - "You have to get rid of it as soon as you lose no more than 8%. Maybe sooner but definitely no more than 8%. That's the absolute maximum you are allowed to lose."

What's The Math Say?

:adapted from Investor's Business Daily

If you sold a $50 stock after losing 8% you now have $46 left. You only need to buy something else and have that stock gain 8.7% to get your original capital back.

However, let's say you're stubborn and have an inflated ego and you hang on to the stock because you can't believe you picked a loser.

You let the stock drop 25% which is what a lot of investor's do all the time. It's now trading at $37.50. You need to make a gain of 33% on your next purchase to get all your money back. That's a lot harder to do than making that piddly 8.7% you would have, had you got out early.

Let's say you are even more stubborn and still hang in and you're now down 50%. Your stock is now trading at $25 from $50. It has to double from here for you to get your money back.

You have to ask yourself, how many stocks did I pick last year year that have doubled in price? Very tough to do consistently.

You want to be able to live to invest another day. That's why you cut your losses early and stay out of trouble. Take your loss and look for the next winner by selling when you lose 7-8%.

You can do this and make simple and easy 25-30% gains and still be wrong 3/4 times. Preserve your capital and live to invest another day.

Never forget Rule #1

My Recent Trading History

This is how getting out early can save you from further losses. This is how much in percentage terms I would have further lost had I not sold these stocks when I did.

Osisko Mining (18.18%)
Novo Resources  (7%)
Painted Pony (5%) after a small gain
Acuity Ads (13%)
Advantage Oil and Gas (13.3%)

This has just been in the last 2 weeks. I have learned to get out early to save money. I just try and hit singles. Take your loss and start looking for your next winner. Most of the time it will happen after a general market decline when stocks are down 20%. Looking back, the rule really worked and saved me from some gut wrenching rides down to the bottom.

Current Positions

I am only holding 2 trading positions right now and they are CGX (0.78) and OTEX (0.18).

We are a long way from having to sell these 2 stocks and I'm hoping to be in the green real soon.


I NEVER USE MY RETIREMENT MONEY TO TRADE IN AND OUT OF 
STOCKS!



You can look at our retirement holdings here.

Investing and Saving Ideas You Can Use NOW!


If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. 

If you are further looking for portfolio ideas then you might find my review of The 6-Pack Portfolio a way for you to get started on your investing journey. All of our retirement money is invested in this manner. We just hold more than 6 positions.

All 3 of these books written for Canadians by Canadians.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Cineplex - New Stock Buy



In my last post, I documented my trading history of GoEasy. I took the money from that SELL side trade and bought Cineplex. The stock has been beaten down from a 52 week high of $42.79 to yesterday's close of $30.40.

Earnings were announced on 13 August and profit was up an astounding 1,670% in Q2. Revenues were up 12% compared to the same quarter a year ago. It looked like a no-brainer to me so I bought the stock soon after the announcement.

The stock went from $28.96 ---> $30.92 where I bought it. It seemed like positive momentum had firmly set in and the stock was set to come off it's lows in a big way. Not so fast. I got hammered on the trade as the stock plunged 6% in price from where I bought it and finished the trading day @ $29.10.

I had completely got the buy point wrong. It was not enough for me to force a sale but I was definitely upset at my timing. I own 130 shares of CGX @$30.92. The stock closed yesterday @ $30.40. I'm still down but have recovered most of my loss due to bad timing.

This will force me to hold the stock until I get into the green and make money on this trade. The stock yields 5.9% while I wait.

I also own OTEX and I'm up $33.50 on 75 shares. I still only commit $4K on each trade.


What Happened

When it comes to the Stock Market nobody knows anything. A company reports great earnings numbers and the market hammers the stock. I don't day trade and I don't sit in front of my computer all day watching the ticker. I try and do my homework ahead of time before I decide to buy a stock. These are all short term trades for my Gambling Portfolio.

In the case of Cineplex I can now only guess that the market didn't like the fact that they had expected more revenue than they got. Even thought the numbers were an improvement, they wanted more. The greedy bastards. I am hoping now tat the stock gets revised by analysts and is upgraded. That is the only thing that is going to save this trade for me. Patience is now a must so I can make money in the short term.


New Strategy

Gold and Oil stocks continue to move lower and represent a poor area for trading and trying to make money. All the momentum seems to be in growth stocks. I have formulated a list of stocks I would consider buying with cash from future trades. 

Growth Stock Watchlist (as of 7 August 2018)

RBA
WTE
DSG
MTY
ATD-B
TOY
TC
DOL

Since I compiled this list the total PF is up $177 on an equal amount of 5K invested in each position. I don't do analysis of individual stocks and whether they are a good fit for you. These are trading stocks for me and may be long term holds for you. I look to time the market and make money in my unregistered trading account. I also don't know anything and I'm not an expert on trading stocks. My system is wonky at best and probably not suitable for you. It's just what I do with my play money.


I NEVER USE MY RETIREMENT MONEY TO TRADE IN AND OUT OF 
STOCKS!


You can look at our retirement holdings here.

Investing and Saving Ideas You Can Use NOW!


If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. 

If you are further looking for portfolio ideas then you might find my review of The 6-Pack Portfolio a way for you to get started on your investing journey. All of our retirement money is invested in this manner. We just hold more than 6 positions.

All 3 of these books written for Canadians by Canadians.

Saturday, August 11, 2018

My Trading History of GoEasy Financial



I got excited on Thursday afternoon and saw my newly bought shares of GSY moving up another 5%. I love the fundamentals of this company and I believe it has a lot of room to go higher especially with interest rates rising. They will expand margins and make more profits on the bottom line when rates rise again in October as predicted by most analysts. Here is the full trade results;


7 August - BUY 85 shares of GSY.TO @ $49.14 + $9.99 = $4186.89
9 August - SELL ALL GSY @ $52.00 - $9.99 = 4410.01

TOTAL PROFIT = $4410.01-$4186.89 = $223.12


I booked profits @ $52 and believe it or not, I caught the high of the day. Why sell so early? The stock gapped up so quickly after earnings were released and then displayed exhaustion near the top of the move. It may move down Friday and then resume it's rise. I don't know. I just wanted to hit a small single and book my profits early. This is the second time this year I have bought and sold GSY. Here is what I made previously on GSY. This stock has been very good to me.

24 August 2016 BUY 200 shares of GSY @ $20.75 + $9.99 = $4186.89
10 April 2018 SELL ALL GSY @ $35.01 + $9.99 = $6,992.01

TOTAL PROFIT = $6,992.01 - 4186.89 = $2,806.01

GSY Dividends Collected

14 October 2016 - $25.00
13 January 2017 - $25.00
13 April 2017 - $36.00
14 July 2017 - $36.00
13 October 2017 -  $36.00
12 January 2018 - $36.00
13 April 2018 - $45.00

TOTAL DIVIDENDS COLLECTED = $239.00

TOTAL GSY PROFITS = $223.12 + $239 + $2806.01 = $3268.13

As you can see GSY has made me some good money since I first bought it. The reason I sold it earlier when I did was because I needed the money.

Everyone sells stocks for many different reasons. This is what makes a market.

Who knows I may buy this stock again as a short term trading position.

Here is what I wrote on 12 April of this year about GSY.TO

I NEVER USE MY RETIREMENT MONEY TO TRADE IN AND OUT OF 
STOCKS!

You can look at our retirement holdings here.

If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. Both of these books written for Canadians by Canadians.

Do You Own GoEasy Financial?


Friday, August 10, 2018

How to Win at Stock Picking When You're Wrong



I have been heavily influenced by two traders in my life, Tom Carter (RIP) who wrote 'Stock Market Speculation' (out of print) in the 1980's and William J. O'Neil who wrote 'How To make Money in Stocks'.

I try and follow the advice they laid out for speculators in these books to become a successful trader. I don't day trade and I don't borrow on margin to invest. Never have and never will.

These books are filled with so much buying, selling and money management advice, one really has to read them 2-3 times and take notes so you can fully understand the years of trading experience they convey. In future blog posts I will attempt to pass on more of what they had to say on making successful trades. 

It is really hard to list anything that's the MOST important because they're all important and work together in concert to help us become successful.

To do that, protecting capital is the #1 priority. NEVER lose money. We hear this all the time from professionals and amateurs alike. DON'T lose money. Yet, we do, don't we? Yes we lose money on bad trades and by making bad decisions or listening to bad advice.

That is going to happen because we're human. We fall for it every day. Only a few of us admit it.

Do I get every trade right? Do all my trades make money? Not a fricken chance in hell. Here's the most important thing about trading you have to remember if you want to MAKE MONEY!


Cut Your Losses Early

"The whole secret to winning big in the stock market is to not be right all the time, but to lose the least amount possible when you're wrong."  
- William J. O'Neil


  • ALWAYS without exception you must limit your loss on capital to between 7-8% per trade. If your guts are telling you sooner, then do it.
  • investing is NOT gambling, it is investing
  • if you time your buys by looking at a chart then losing 8% becomes hard to do
  • you look for those stocks coming off of a base and are starting to rise. This is your buy point.
  • never ever buy into negative momentum. You buy your position as the stock starts moving up. If you make a mistake you use your sell rule of 8%
  • letting your losses get out of hand is the WORST mistake investors make
  • hoping and praying your stock goes up in price is NOT a sound strategy
Cutting your losses using this rule would have saved you from the financial crisis of 2008/9. You would have sold everything before everything started to meltdown. This is my strategy for the next crisis.

TAKE YOUR LOSSES QUICKLY AND YOUR PROFITS SLOWLY

When to Sell and Take Profits

  • I sell if I can make 20% 
  • we hit singles and round the bases to win
  • I'm not trying to hit home runs, I never could
  • the best offense is the best defense
"everyone loves to buy stocks, nobody likes to sell them"
- p. 248 "How to Make Money in Stocks"

  • always weed the garden and sell your worst performers FIRST

Other Important Points to Remember

  • swallow your pride
  • forget your ego, stocks don't care
  • never argue with the market
  • don't get emotionally attached to any stock that is losing money
  • never lose your confidence
  • keep studying the market, become a student of the market
  • ignore everyone making recommendations, friends, TV gurus and advisors
  • analyze your every trade and keep track of your profits and losses
  • personal opinions don't matter, just watch what the market is telling you
IF YOU DON'T SELL EARLY YOU'LL BE LATE

Don't argue with a declining market, keep losses as small as possible. I am no longer buying penny or junior stocks for trading, they just tend to drop too soon for me to react.

Keep your trading account to just a few stocks. Too much diversification will kill your reaction time. CONCENTRATE your trade in just a couple positions. I only use two at the moment at $4K a piece.

I'm not going to get rich quick (which this is not) but I will be able to keep a better eye on my stocks.

I only gamble with money I can afford to lose.

I NEVER USE MY RETIREMENT MONEY TO TRADE IN AND OUT OF 
STOCKS!

You can look at our retirement holdings here.

If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. Both of these books written for Canadians by Canadians.

What are your thoughts on trading stocks?