Portfolio Check Up Q1 2019

I don't usually post short term portfolio results but it seems to be all the rage with the blogger community these days. That and those monthly dividend income reports. Maybe I'll become that guy too.

It's just a short post based on first quarter results and returns.

It was the worst quarter that turned into the best quarter. That's how markets work and always will. You only lose when you sell. 

Dow up 11%
S&P up 13%
TSX up 11.6%

As you can see major markets were on a tear in Q1 2019 after just a brutal 2018 when we all lost money. The greatest returns in history always follow a bust. December 2018 was a massacre. I hope you stayed invested for the gains in January.

Collectively my PF was up 14.2%. Those are Nasdaq like numbers almost. That index returned 16.5%.

During the quarter I sold my Facebook and Constellation Software stocks. Why? Not generating any income. I sold them for small gains and bought trading positions in Encana and Green Organic Dutchman.

I harvested $2.358.13 in dividends during the quarter. This is low because not all my stocks are generating income.

I will be looking at selling my positions in Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway 'B' and MTY Food Group.

Stocks on my buy list generating income include; CNQ, CM and BNS.

This will bump up my monthly dividend income in a big way once that $20K is put to work.

I will also be waiting and watching the market to sell my 2 trading stocks mentioned earlier.

It was a great quarter across all accounts which I doubt will be repeated in the months ahead. It is time to go to 100% dividend stocks and dump those growth names to prepare for the upcoming recession that my never come, but who knows.

I'm in the middle of reading a great little book on growing income in your portfolio. Book review to follow but if your interested here's a link.




How did you do this quarter?

Should You Sell Your Bank Stocks?

Lots of chatter and lots of articles telling people that the heyday for now is over. Canadian Banks should be sold as losses will widen due to overextended consumer debt.

That is why interest rates are falling after 5 raises last year. There is rampant speculation that in fact there will be a cut this year. That will make mortgages cheaper, the short end of the yield curve will sell off and fall lower. It's already went from 3% to 2.3%.

This will also fuel house buying as mortgages get cheaper and new buyers dying to get into the market will feel better paying lower rates after being scared off last year with all the raises in rates.

So why sell your investments in Canadian Banks?

Only if you need the money of course. Other than that if you are a long term investor you just hold fast and maybe even buy more stock if there is a sell off.

This could be a tremendous opportunity to add to existing positions if you're a retail investor.

We don't need to sell to impress the manager with stellar stock returns. Those people need to justify bonus money and lock in gains when they can. Just ignore what they'e doing and hold or even buy more. That's my plan anyway.

What's the downside of staying invested in your Canadian banks?

They are trading at such cheap P/Es averaging around 11 times forward earnings. I will be loading up on my 3 biggest positions in RY, TD and BNS.

Some of my bank stocks are up well over 20% so there is no way I'm selling anything. Analysts are predicting a 20% drop.

Focus on the income they generate. No Canadian bank has cut their dividend since 1947 according to David Baskin of Baskin Financial. 

Most are averaging a 4% yield so sit back, collect that money and go for a walk.

Never exit any asset class especially Canadian banks in my opinion.

NEVER GAMBLE WITH MONEY YOU HAVE SAVED FOR RETIREMENT!

Looking for Saving Ideas So You Can Invest? 

If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. 

If you are further looking for portfolio ideas then you might find my review of The 6-Pack Portfolio a way for you to get started on your investing journey. All of our retirement money is invested in this manner. We just hold more than 6 positions.

If you want to read more about the theory and methodology of some of Canada's professional investment/portfolio managers then you need to pick up a copy of the book 'Market Masters'. Robin Speziale conducts interviews with top money mangers in Canada using a set of pre-arranged questions. This will give you a real insight into how others invest money and how they think. A must read!

Why I Sold Mawer Balanced and Bought Stocks

I just hating paying on-going fees on a long term basis to own any asset. That's basically why I dumped all funds and ETFs I did own.

You get so seduced listening to all the financial porn out there in the mainstream that you think this is how you should invest. To be fair I bought MAW104 for my wife's LIRA.

Just in case something happened to me, I wanted something simple for her to manage. Then I had second thoughts when she told me that it didn't matter because when I'm gone she's selling everything and going to cash.

Ya, you got it. In other words she's going to drain her investment accounts in spite of my trying to educate her. The best I can then try to do is invest her money in individual dividend growth stocks so that would be harder for her to do.

Maybe she'll just learn to collect the dividends and live off that income. What I need to do is take care of myself well into old age so I can convert this plan into a monthly income stream through a RRIF.

MAW104

This is a Global Neutral Balanced Fund. It will cost you .92% of fees annually. Pretty cheap for a mutual fund. It gained -0.3% last year. It lost money but so did most everything. The TSX was down 8%. But isn't the whole reason you buy these products is to play conservative and not lose money. 40% is invested in bonds and fixed income. Isn't this supposed to protect us from down markets? Apparently that's a lie too.

There is no such thing. So, you pay a fee to then lose money and lose a whole year of not collecting dividends and raising cash. MAW104 distributes fractional units on a monthly basis, NOT cash. I hate that.

I didn't own this fund long but for those that do it's ranked 15/1373 funds in it's category.

Here are my results during my short 7 month hold.

BUY 2,024 shares @ $28.15

SELL 2,024 shares @ $28.33

PROFIT = $392.07 on an investment of $57,000

YAWN!

I decided to turn that cash into stock purchases for my wife's LIRA portfolio.

What I Bought Instead

BNS 95 shares

CNR 60 shares

CP 25 shares

CU 215 shares

EMA 150 shares

ENB 156 shares

FTS 150 shares

RY 70 shares

TD 90 shares

TRP 130 shares

Since the conversion the portfolio is up 11% and $7,850. Good decision? I think so. Including dividends which is building up in cash and NOT in fractional shares at 0.08 shares per month with MAW104.

So, the main differences are one fund to 10 stocks. Dividends instead of fractional shares. All equity instead of a balanced fund with a 60/40 split. No fees to 0.92 MER.

Where Would I be Today with Mawer

Let's just assume I didn't sell it and held on through the December massacre. The price today is;

@29.56 X 2,024 shares = $59,829

I would be up $2,829 on my original $57,000 investment IF I would have held on.

Where I am with an All Stock Portfolio

Up $5,262.52 on that $57,392 I converted into 10 stocks.

Cash in PF = $1,227

I'll wait for at least a $4K cash position before buying or adding stocks to the portfolio. In case you didn't know, you can't contribute to a LIRA.

The difference in the two approaches works out to;

$6,273 - $2,829 = $3,444

That's a big difference but to each his own.

I almost doubled my money since buying back stocks in November 2018.

In Sum

I don't subscribe to MPT anymore. I don't worry about asset allocation, diversification or when to rebalance. I buy stocks when they get cheap. Right now everything is expensive.

In Canada you have to own banks, utilities, pipelines and telecomms. All the big Funds/ETFs own them. So, why not just buy them individually and reap all the rewards while at the same time NOT pay fees.

Bonds are not safety. Neither are pref shares or any fund or ETF. They might bring you comfort but that all depends on your definition of comfort and safety. The real safety is in the long term holding of assets.

You don't sell your house every month or look and worry about it's price. Would you sell it if it dropped 20%. Never happen right? You hang on and the same attitude can be applied to stocks.

All my portfolios are built this way.

I hold some U.S. stocks in other portfolios that are great businesses.

Just what I do and not advice for you to do the same.

Do you subscribe to Modern Portfolio Theory? Do you own any mutual funds or ETFs for diversification and safety?

How I Play The Recession

I just focus on dividends and dump anything risky in my portfolio. Are we heading for a recession? That's what the MSM seems to be saying. Thing is do you act on it?

The best way I've found to sleep at night is to own quality companies and hold long term. Also, the earlier you start the better. The longer you hold a Dividend Growth stock the safer and more valuable it becomes to provide income in retirement.

What about that inverted yield curve signalling a recession is looming? Well interest rates are on hold and may even go lower. We have a housing crisis in Canada where prices are out of control and unaffordable in the big cities. Stocks usually do really well when interest rates drop.

Should you sell everything and wait on the sidelines? I never do that. We had a massacre in December remember? Did you sell then? I just hold on take my lumps on capital and ride it out. What you will find is that your dividend yield is rising even though stocks are dropping in price,

Accumulate some cash and get ready to buy some of your favourite stocks you've been watching. You should always have a list of those types of stocks you don't own but want to.

You just weather the storm when it comes and watch your income grow. If you have some dogs in your portfolio you wait until the markets start rising before you sell. Try to ignore all the fear on TV and do your own research. Don't listen to friends or you'll end up selling and regretting it.

Stay in the market and go live your life. Right now stocks are very expensive and are due to get cheaper over the summer months is my guess.

When you go this route with your stock portfolio it gets safer to own stocks. I don't buy or own any bonds, preferred shares, mutual funds or ETFs. This is Modern Portfolio Theory which I don't believe in. Right now most people are selling stocks and buying into the safety of bonds. They are not safe and cost you money in fees to own them in a fund or ETF.

To me it's bullshit. Just buy quality companies, hold long term and enjoy the always rising and increasing dividend yield. This is safety. If you buy and sell daily then this is risky. I only do that with money I can afford to lose.

If you start early enough you can also ignore all the advice on how much money you need to save for retirement.

Whether you are prepping for retirement or need income you need to HOLD! This is where the rewards are realized. It takes years to build safety in your portfolio.

Start with buying a bank stock. The one you currently hold an ATM card with. Why not? You are already paying them to do business with them. It's a no brainer.

Trade Update

I told you about buying ECA and TGOD the other day here.

I'm still holding because they are both slightly underwater and don't want to sell at a loss. I believe it may now take months to make some money here. I need oil to rise to $60-65 a barrel. This is risky but that's what trading is all about.

TGOD is my pot stock of choice because it's been beaten down the most so represents the most upside.

ECA 6%
TGOD 3.75%

How much am I willing to lose before selling? Probably between 10-15% and then deploy the money elsewhere. There had to be a reason these stocks popped up higher and then sold off. I believe more traders are piling in. I'll just wait and see for now.

I think today will be a good day for both. Happy trading!

Retirement Money Confusion

I just helped a buddy move over the last couple weeks. I showed up to lend a hand on 3 different occasions. Why 3 times you might ask? Fucked up and disorganized is why.

Worst move ever and I'm going on 63 years old, so this was not my first. To save money it was friends with trucks helping out like always.

I would have paid the $5-6K and kept my sanity and the happiness of my friends. Why do people cheap out on this expense. If and when I ever decide to move again, I am definitely hiring movers. If not at least bring in packers so everything is squared away before your friends arrive.

The most intriguing part of the final day of the move was sitting around over beers and talking about retirement, pensions and money. It is always amazing to me just how many people don't know anything about their pension plans.

This is not a personal finance blog so I don't spew advice on what you should or should not do with your money. It's simply about strategies I use to help grow my money.

Here are some of the burning questions some of the guys were asking;

• I'm still working, should I take my CPP?
• should I tap into my LIRA?
• where do I find out my CPP payment schedule?
• do I have enough to retire on?
• I pay too much in taxes, what can I do?

So much confusion about what to do for guys all in their sixties. Crazy really. I really was shocked how some people are just complete misfits when it comes to money and how to stop working and enjoy the rest of life.

The first thing I suggested was opening a 'My Service Account' with the Government of Canada so you could see all the info on your CPP and what your payments would be should you decide to retire now or years from now.

I'm a big believer in collecting at 60 and if you're still working deposit it into your RRSP. You could do that or use the money to improve your life. Anyways, that was step one.

I'm 62 make $80K a year and have $300K in a LIRA. Should I tap into it?

Again everybody's money situation is different. I don't know how long your going to live or how much your day to day expenses are. So it's painfully hard for any amateur investor to tell you what you need to do with your money and life.

My advice was to go spend some money and seek professional advice from a financial planner that doesn't sell investment products. Instead get a plan made for you as a guide on how much a month you'll have to live on and whether it's enough. It's just too complicated drinking beers and seeking financial advice with six guys sitting around the kitchen table. What I do is not going to apply to your situation.

In Sum

Yes take your CPP NOW. Open a My Service Account. Pay to get a plan and use an RRSP to save on taxes if you pay too much. When your comfortable let's talk what stocks to invest in to help grow your retirement money.

It never ceases to amaze me how many people are so unprepared with what their facing as they age. There is no need to be confused about how much money you'll be making in retirement. This number is vital in knowing whether you should stop work or not.

Buy some books like any of the ones suggested here and go see a professional and never ask your senior friends to help you move. Have a heart and some compassion for their aging backs.

NEVER GAMBLE WITH MONEY YOU HAVE SAVED FOR RETIREMENT!

Looking for Saving Ideas So You Can Invest? 

If you are looking at ways to save money this new book The Cashflow Cookbook can help you find some savings to then use to invest.

If you are having trouble getting your financial house in order and organized then you need to read Worry Free Money. 

If you are further looking for portfolio ideas then you might find my review of The 6-Pack Portfolio a way for you to get started on your investing journey. All of our retirement money is invested in this manner. We just hold more than 6 positions.

If you want to read more about the theory and methodology of some of Canada's professional investment/portfolio managers then you need to pick up a copy of the book 'Market Masters'. Robin Speziale conducts interviews with top money mangers in Canada using a set of pre-arranged questions. This will give you a real insight into how others invest money and how they think. A must read!

TGOD - New Stock Purchase

I just jumped back into the pot market yesterday. My stock purchase of choice on this day was TGOD - The Green Organic Dutchman.

I didn't buy it because I think it's the next best thing in weed stocks or that I'm an expert on the company. These stocks have been on a tear and I believe they are for short term trades only. Yes, this is timing the market for a short term capital gain.

I bought 1000 shares for a quick buy and flip. We'll see how the market responds but I'm seeing good volume and momentum picking up.

TGOD has been trading around the $5 mark BUT has been as high as $10.24 during the last 52 weeks. It would have been a great buy at $2.67 which is where it opened the year at. I'm just looking at clipping off another couple of bucks before I let it go.

This will never be a long term hold as this particular company doesn't make much money. I think it only made $1mil last year. It's busy building infrastructure and establishing it's market for organic marijuana products.

It traded over 9 million shares to the downside yesterday but really bounced nicely off it's lows of the day. A positive sign for me.

Did you buy any of the stocks I mentioned yesterday? Both MEG and CPG traded up on high volume. Energy stocks continue to be the place to make some short term money.

I might look to step in to CPG today if it continues to rise in prise. It just broke through it's 50DMA and is still trading well below it's 52 week high of $11.81.

Even after popping up 6.6% to $4.66 it still is displaying positive momentum to the upside. Just look at what the market is doing and ignore the news of the day from the oil patch. It will only cloud your trading decisions.

Looking back on my decision to buy ECA which is down slightly I would have been better off buying MEG or CPG. Oh well, that's just how she fucken goes b'y! Make your trade and move on.

If you haven't guessed by now this is NOT a personal finance blog. I'll leave that to the public servants and single Mom's who moonlight in the space to give you saving and money tips. I'm just interested in investing trading and growing money.

Good luck in the markets!

Buying and Selling Stocks

With all the controversy swirling around Facebook I decided to dump my position and lock in my 10% gain.

On the same day I decided it was time to take profits on CSU.I bought the stock for $926 and sold it for $1096. Close to a 21% gain.

I took the proceeds from my FB sell and bought Encana. Yes, an energy stock. This is just a short term hold and I'm hoping to just gain a couple bucks before selling.

This is just a way to grow money around the core of my portfolio. I don't bother touching the DG stocks I use for income but just trade around them. This is just one way I try and accomplish that.

What about and why ECA?

Most energy stocks are trading at really low levels compared to their 52 week high.

ECA has been as high as $18.54. I purchased 500 shares at $9.87.

Just a small position but I still believe all the risk is to the upside. Time will tell but I believe you buy these stocks when their beaten down for a quick flip and not use them to retire on and forget about. That's just a recipe for disaster.

ECA also pays a 1% dividend but I'm in it for the capital gain and not as an income generator.

There is resistance at $11.67 and if it makes it up there I will be looking to exit. It has been coming off the bottom nicely and looks to be trending up. Anything can happen but when you are looking at flipping stocks, I believe buying them when their down by over 50% off their highs.

The energy sector seems to be displaying a lot of stocks that fit this criteria of mine. You have to watch them like a hawk as commodity stocks can drop like a stone and wipe out all your gains in no time.

ECA pays out it's divy in American dollars and derives 50% of it's production from it's U.S. assets. That's good diversification.

The long term problem with the Canadian energy sector is getting oil to market. We have run out of pipeline capacity so investment dollars have dried up in recent years punishing a lot of these companies.

I'm not interested in the fundamentals here, that's not why I'm taking a gamble here. It's just a short term flip if I can get one in the next 1-3 months.

Oil is very seasonal and cyclical that's why I never hold them long term. I believe ECA has nicely come off it's bottom and I'll watch it for more of a pop if we continue to get higher oil prices.

The company itself is not going away as they've been around since 1971 and is well diversified between natural gas, oil and liquids.

Last year gold and pot stocks were beaten to a pulp and you could have flipped them for some good money. I believe some of these oil stocks are now in the same position now.

Whatever you decide to do keep your eye on the prize and have an exact exit point and take your profits when you reach it.

Other stocks on the TSX you can also look at meeting the same criteria include; STEP, CPG and MEG.

Good luck trading and growing your money!

Should You Build a High Yield Portfolio?

Just a short post today about diving into the world of high yield and whether you should chase stocks that are considered high yield. 

I was intrigued by a recent article in the Globe and Mail by Gordon Pape on his high yield portfolio and the results he has achieved for his subscribers. Interesting to note he has managed to slip in Shopify (SHOP) to this portfolio. It is really a high flying growth stock that pays NO dividend.

Personally I never chase high yield stocks. To grow income I invest in banks, utilities, railroads, telecoms and some food stocks. I further buy growth stocks to add juice to returns. There, I look for quality businesses that I believe contain a wide moat and command a large market share of the revenues earned. Stocks like Amazon, Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway, MTY Food Group, Costco and Constellation Software.

I missed Shopify and I can add that stock to a long list of missed opportunities. I;m not overly concerned because I'm not going to pin my retirement on more than one e-commerce stock. Right now people love to shop on Amazon (me too) so I'm there. I get that there are a ton of mom and pop entrepreneurs out there who want their own store. I wish you the best.

My go to food stock is Costco. I wrote about my reasons here. I love to shop there and am a premium member. They just continue to make money year after year, quarter over quarter. They are true price makers with their membership business model.

High Yield Duds

So many and too many to list. There have been a lot of stocks peddled by talking head TV gurus that have just not worked out. Corus Entertainment and Altagas are a couple that come to mind. Anything over 5% I rarely touch.

I don't bet my retirement income on high yield stocks in communications or commodities. I use dividend growth stocks mixed with some growth companies I believe in like FB and AMZN. I use them and understand what they do.

Investors just get sucked into the excitement of the company. Instead of being focused on the steak they buy the sizzle.

FN, RNW, GS, ESI and Boston Pizza are just some examples of these types of stock I stay away from. I'm not telling you what to invest in, this is just what I do and look for.

Check the charts and dividend yields of these stocks, What you'll see is very little price appreciation as most of them are paying out  their earnings to pay that dividend or monthly distribution.

Eventually, as in the case of CJR.B they end up cutting the dividend and the price plunges. I urge you to look at the 1 year and YTD charts before you think about buying.

Stick to the big quality companies that most of the big mutual funds and ETFs include in their top ten. Ignore the high yield stocks.

If you're young you have time to make up for mistakes. For now, I've made enough. Good Luck and choose your investments wisely.

Stock Talk Bullshit

I would rather listen to people who have actually done it and are doing it. Doing what you might ask? Making fucken money buying and selling stocks is what.

I just get so sick and tired of listening and reading about wannabees telling other people what they should do or shouldn't. Buy this stock because, or you should sell that now because. Because you have no fucken clue of what it takes so why not go out and do it yourself before you dispense bullshit quotes all over message boards and discussion forums.

Who the fuck wants to listen to some whiny fucken millenial preach on about how to make income buying dividend stocks.

How much dividend income you collected since you started investing like maybe 5 years ago? I mean really, now you're an expert investor because you made a few bucks collecting dividends. Yawn! Now shut up please because you know nothing.

What crisis did you go through? How many books have you read and studied to get to where you are in your oh so young ass life? You picked up a book, started a blog and now you preach. You haven't put in the time. You're just maybe bored and thought you would go online and act like some investing god on your path to financial freedom and early retirement.

NO, you're a fucken faker. A wannabee douchebag cluttering up twitter and investing boards disguised as a knowledgeable investor. You know fuck all and have never paid your dues in the marketplace. Yet you somehow feel it's necessary to always be right when it comes to making money with stocks. How to buy them, when to sell them. What is short term thinking and long term believing.

Go do it instead of hanging out criticizing others about what they need to do to make it.

The ones that really piss me off are all those fakers with a blog who post income with no real return numbers. Oh hey, look at me. I brought in $200 in July, my best month ever. Why are you doing this? I mean who in the actual fuck are you helping with this useless information?

Post numbers of what you actually made that month, include everything. Be honest if you want to open yourself up to scrutiny. 

Stats don't lie but sometimes statisticians do!

I find it extremely frustrating and downright disgusting the lack of good blogs worth following here in Canada. Just a handful of real honest ones with real people who have actually accomplished something with money.

Most are just faking it because they haven't lived long enough to earn shit, haven't made shit and KNOW SHIT!

Most Canadians are in debt, $1.69 owed for every dollar earned. Yup just buying shit with money they don't have. Try to stay away from people like that. Chances are when they learn a lesson they will become another fake blogger to throw themselves at the heap.

I don't know, I visit a lot of blogs, discussion boards and internet forums. It's the same old same old everywhere you go. Most of the time everyone is giving each other a hand job along with confirmation about how well they're doing and just nodding in agreement or some other bullshit story.

It's the internet and everybody lies about what they think is the next great investment story or because they bought something it's definitely going to be a money maker. When you make money on it and can explain confidently about why it's a good move then share.

STOP trying to sell shit like your orange code or books or subscriptions to your newsletter when you haven't learned or earned shit to charge anybody for your shit. 

Keep your blog REAL. Keep your life and experience REAL. STOP trying to tell people how to make money when you can't or haven't done it yourself.

The other big thing that is a major fucken piss off to me is young millenial bloggers whining about boomers then trying to sell them on retirement advice. HUH? 

Thanks but if I want retirement advice I'll go get it from people living in retirement. They've done it and are living it. You are too busy doing useless fucken projections complete with fancy graphs about how much you need to live in retirement.

You want investing advice? I'll listen to someone successful at it and lives off investments. NOT pretenders who have a plan. You haven't put in the time because you're too young and living in the future. It's not enough.

You also plan to far ahead. I want to hear about the NOW. What are you doing NOW? Today!

One step and day at a time. 

I live in retirement and own income producing portfolios.

Go read Tom Connolly, Robin Speziale. Don't bother with 99.9% of the amateur blogs out there.

You want a 60/40 traditional portfolio go read Garth Turner.

Stop buying funds, ETFs, bonds and pref shares. They charge fees and rape you of money over the long term.

Stay out of debt and always invest your savings.

Buy quality companies that you actually have studied and know something about. Do you go on a long trip without your GPS or google maps. Have a fucken plan on how to get there. Same goes for investing.

STOP listening to amateurs.

This is my blog. NOT a fucken expert and NOT advive. This is for entertainment purposes.

Maybe the lack of sun and prevalence of cold days has me pissed. Oh and stay the fuck off twitter. Populated by a bunch of knowitall cunts!

Unfollow me, I don't give a fuck!